We were discussing how governments could take over ICANN. This was in response to a new meme gaining popularity within the Beltway: the idea that we need to retain the Commerce Department’s leash on ICANN (the JPA) because if we don’t, other governments (autocratic Russians, Chinese commie hordes, turbaned Islamo-fascists or languid, dirigiste Europeans) will somehow “interfere” with DNS.
But the future of the JPA has virtually nothing to do with ICANN’s subordination to other governments. It's about ICANN's subordination to the US government. The people advancing this meme have not specified how a government takeover is supposed to happen, much less how retaining the JPA would prevent it. As I started to argue yesterday, it is hard to conceive of a single plausible scenario for governments to exert more power over ICANN that isn't either a) already happening, and being aided and abetted by the USG; b) more likely to happen the longer the US stays in control or c) require the US government’s consent.
To prove this point, here are some plausible scenarios and mechanisms through which national governments could put pressure on ICANN. By examining these, we can better appreciate just how far off base the CDT and others are.